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Contract analysis / spread-widening-analysis-memo.docx
spread-widening-analysis-memo.docx
High · 3
Medium · 5
Standard · 2
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Medium
⚑ Assignment / subcontracting
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this memorandum is to analyze the material widening of credit spreads in the asset-backed securities ("ABS") market that has occurred since the Quorum Receivables Funding 2022-1 LLC ("QRF 2022-1") transaction was initially structured in June 2022, and to assess the impact of that widening on the economic viability of the proposed $500,000,000 issuance of asset-backed notes secured
II. BACKGROUND
Medium
⚑ Liability cap to check against exposure
II. BACKGROUND A. Transaction Overview Quorum Receivables Funding 2022-1 LLC ("QRF 2022-1") is a Delaware limited liability company organized as a bankruptcy-remote special purpose vehicle ("SPV"). QRF 2022-1 was formed on August 3, 2022 under the Delaware Limited Liability Company Act (DE Secretary of State File No. 7894231) for the sole purpose of issuing $500,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of asset-backed n
III. MARKET CONDITIONS AT DEAL LAUNCH (JUNE–JULY 2022)
Medium
⚑ Assignment / subcontracting
III. MARKET CONDITIONS AT DEAL LAUNCH (JUNE–JULY 2022) A. ABS Market Environment in Q2 2022 When the QRF 2022-1 transaction was initially structured in June 2022, the general ABS market environment was moderately constructive, notwithstanding the fact that the Federal Reserve had already begun its rate-hiking cycle earlier in the year. The SOFR benchmark rate was increasing in tandem with the Federal Funds target rat
IV. MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: JULY–NOVEMBER 2022
Medium
⚑ Assignment / subcontracting
IV. MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: JULY–NOVEMBER 2022 A. Macroeconomic and Policy Drivers The period from July through November 2022 was characterized by a pronounced deterioration in market conditions across fixed income and structured finance sectors. Several interconnected macroeconomic and policy factors contributed to this deterioration: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy. The Federal Reserve continued its aggressive rate-hi
V. INDICATIVE PRICING RESULTS (NOVEMBER 2, 2022)
Medium
⚑ Assignment / subcontracting
V. INDICATIVE PRICING RESULTS (NOVEMBER 2, 2022) A. Roadshow Summary A virtual investor roadshow for the QRF 2022-1 transaction was conducted over a period of eight business days, from October 24, 2022 through November 2, 2022. During the roadshow, presentations were delivered to approximately forty-five institutional investors, including insurance companies, asset managers, bank portfolios, and specialty structured
VI. IMPACT ANALYSIS
Standard
⚑ Commercial term
VI. IMPACT ANALYSIS A. Cost-of-Funds Analysis At the indicative pricing levels reported by Ridgeline on November 2, 2022, the all-in spread cost exceeds QIH's Board-approved cost-of-funds hurdle rate by 25.25 basis points. This exceedance has direct and quantifiable economic consequences for QIH if the transaction were to proceed at these levels. The incremental annual interest cost of proceeding at the indicative pr
VII. STRUCTURAL ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED
High
⚑ Non-compete / exclusivity restraint
VII. STRUCTURAL ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED A. Repricing the Transaction at Current Market Levels The most straightforward alternative to shelving the transaction is to proceed to pricing and closing at the indicative spread levels reported by Ridgeline. This would result in an all-in weighted average cost of funds of approximately SOFR + 200.25 basis points. While this approach would achieve the non-economic benefits of
VIII. RISKS OF SHELVING
High
⚑ Non-compete / exclusivity restraint
VIII. RISKS OF SHELVING A. Market Risk The most significant risk associated with shelving the transaction is that credit spreads may continue to widen, further deteriorating the economics of a future issuance. The macroeconomic factors that have driven the spread widening observed since June 2022 — including the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle, persistent inflation, recessionary concerns, and elevated market vola
IX. PLACEMENT FEE IMPACT
Standard
⚑ Commercial term
IX. PLACEMENT FEE IMPACT The total placement fees negotiated with Ridgeline Capital Markets in connection with the QRF 2022-1 transaction are as follows: No placement fees are payable to Ridgeline absent a closing of the transaction. As of the date of this memorandum, Ridgeline has not earned any placement fees, and no portion of the placement fees has been paid or is currently accrued as a payable on QIH's balance s
X. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
X. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Based on the analysis set forth in this memorandum, Calderwood & Harkness LLP offers the following conclusions and recommendations:
1. The transaction is currently not economically viable. The all-in weighted average cost
1. The transaction is currently not economically viable. The all-in weighted average cost of funds at current indicative pricing is approximately SOFR + 200.25 basis points, which exceeds the QIH Board-approved cost-of-funds hurdle of SOFR + 175 basis points by 25.25 basis points. Under the terms of the Board authorization of July 27, 2022, management does not have authority to close the transaction at these pricing
2. Shelving is the most prudent course of action. Proceeding at the indicative pricing lev
2. Shelving is the most prudent course of action. Proceeding at the indicative pricing levels would lock in above-hurdle funding costs of approximately $1.2 million per annum relative to the Board-approved threshold, and approximately $2.4 million per annum relative to the original coupon guidance. The structural alternatives considered — capital stack restructuring, issuance size reduction, and repricing — either do
3. Sunk costs are manageable. Total sunk costs of approximately $2,555,000 are significant
3. Sunk costs are manageable. Total sunk costs of approximately $2,555,000 are significant but represent less than 0.07% of QIH's FY2021 consolidated revenue of approximately $3.8 billion. These costs should be weighed against the ongoing incremental interest cost of approximately $2.4 million per annum that would be incurred by proceeding at unfavorable spreads. On a breakeven basis, the sunk costs would be recovere
4. Optionality should be preserved. The SPV entities (QRF 2022-1 and QRH), near-final tran
4. Optionality should be preserved. The SPV entities (QRF 2022-1 and QRH), near-final transaction documentation, and rating agency relationships represent significant infrastructure that can be leveraged for an efficient relaunch. These assets should be maintained during the shelving period at minimal incremental cost. Estimated incremental costs to relaunch the transaction, including updated legal documentation, ref
5. Recommended next steps (if shelving is approved by QIH management):
High
⚑ Non-compete / exclusivity restraint
5. Recommended next steps (if shelving is approved by QIH management): (a) Prepare a formal recommendation letter to the QIH Board of Directors, setting forth the analysis contained in this memorandum and requesting Board approval of the shelving decision and the associated write-off of sunk costs. (b) Notify Ridgeline Capital Markets LLC of the suspension of the transaction and the cessation of all investor marketin