FR EA
1014-00004 · Hawthorne Vega & Cruz LLP · Expert Reports & Materials
keating-appendix-a-lost-profits-model.xlsx DOCUMENT Litigation
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Contract analysis Extract to table

[sheet: Cover & Assumptions]

ParameterValueSource / Notes
Case CaptionOptiwave Semiconductor Corp. v. Lumicore Technologies, Inc.Case No. 2:24-cv-00319-JRG (E.D. Tex.)
Presiding JudgeJudge James R. Gilstrap
ExpertDr. Lawrence KeatingMeridian Economic Consulting Group, LLC
Expert Rate$875/hrPer retention agreement dated August 5, 2024
PlaintiffOptiwave Semiconductor Corp. (OWS)Delaware corporation; HQ: 4810 Bayside Technology Parkway, Suite 300, Santa Clara, CA 95054
DefendantLumicore Technologies, Inc. (Lumicore / LTC)Delaware corporation; HQ: 9200 Spectrum Boulevard, Building C, Austin, TX 78759
Plaintiff's CounselCalderwood & Harkness LLPLead Partner: Alan Ngo; Billing Partner: Marcus Delgado
Defendant's CounselHawthorne Vega & Cruz LLPLead Partner: Catherine 'Kate' Rourke
Infringement Period StartQ3 2022Launch of first accused product (LumiLink 400G-ZR+)
Infringement Period End (Projected through trial)Q4 2025Trial set for February 2, 2026
Market-Share Displacement Factor38.2%Per market share displacement analysis; OWS competes head-to-head with Lumicore at 12 of top 20 hyperscale data-center operators
OWS Gross Margin on Competing Products47.3%Per OWS internal financials produced in discovery; audited by Gresham & Whitfield LLP
OWS FY 2023 Total Revenue$487.3MPer Gresham & Whitfield LLP audited financials
OWS FY 2023 Net Income$61.4MPer Gresham & Whitfield LLP audited financials
Lumicore FY 2023 Total Revenue (est.)$312.6MPer Lumicore 10-K (public); audited by Brennan Kellogg & Associates LLP
Lumicore IPOMarch 2022 at $24/share on NasdaqUnderwriter: Silverstone Capital Markets LLC
Lumicore Share Price at Filing~$37/shareAs of April 22, 2024
Lumicore Shares Outstanding91.8MApproximate at filing
Lumicore Market Cap at Filing~$3.4B91.8M × $37 = $3,396.6M
Asserted PatentsU.S. 10,234,847; U.S. 10,891,193; U.S. 9,678,562; U.S. 11,402,015Four utility patents
'562 Patent Original AssigneeSolara Optics, Inc.Acquired by OWS via APA dated June 15, 2018 for $34.5M (12 patents total)
Hypothetical Negotiation DateQ2 2022Just before first accused product launch
Total Accused Product Revenue (Projected Q3 2022 – Q4 2025)$714.6MPer preliminary analysis
Total Accused Product Revenue (FY 2023)$264.9M$94.8M + $128.4M + $41.7M
Total Accused Product Revenue (Q3 2022 – Q1 2024)~$378.2MPer preliminary analysis
OWS Competing ProductsOWS-400ZR, OWS-800XR, OWS-1600DRTransceiver module families
Data ConfidentialityLumicore data designated Highly Confidential — Attorneys' Eyes OnlyPer three-tier stipulated protective order
Draft StatusDRAFT — Subject to revision upon receipt of FY 2024 Lumicore revenue data
PE SponsorRidgeline Capital Partners, LP (55% stake acquired 2019 for $780M)Managing Partner: Franklin Osei
OWS Revolving Credit Facility$125MWeston Fidelity Bank, N.A.
Plaintiff's Technical ExpertDr. Caroline AshfordNorthfield Institute of Technology
Plaintiff's Industry ExpertGregory FalkIndependent consultant; formerly Solara Optics, Inc.
Reverse Engineering LabBenchmark Semiconductor Analysis, LLCLead Engineer: Kevin Ng
Licensing Agent (Pre-Suit)FairPoint Licensing Group, LLCManaging Director: Angela Reeves
Model PurposePanduit lost-profits analysis with reasonable royalty crosscheckAppendix A to Dr. Keating Damages Report

[sheet: Accused Product Revenue]

PeriodLumiLink 400G-ZR+ Revenue ($M)LumiLink 800G-DR8 Revenue ($M)LumiEdge 1600G-LR Revenue ($M)Total Accused Product Revenue ($M)SourceDesignation
Q3 202212.30.00.012.3Lumicore segment disclosuresHighly Confidential — AEO
Q4 202218.50.00.018.5Lumicore segment disclosuresHighly Confidential — AEO
FY 2022 Subtotal (Q3-Q4)30.80.00.030.8Sum
Q1 202321.214.60.035.8Lumicore segment disclosuresHighly Confidential — AEO
Q2 202323.128.70.051.8Lumicore segment disclosuresHighly Confidential — AEO
Q3 202325.838.40.064.2Lumicore segment disclosuresHighly Confidential — AEO
Q4 202324.746.741.7113.1Lumicore segment disclosures; LumiEdge launched Q4 2023Highly Confidential — AEO
FY 2023 Subtotal94.8128.441.7264.9Sum; cross-checks to Lumicore 10-K
Q1 202420.848.213.582.5Lumicore quarterly filingHighly Confidential — AEO
Infringement Period Total (Q3 2022 – Q1 2024)146.4176.655.2378.2Sum (cross-check to preliminary estimate)
Q2 2024 (est.)19.551.018.088.5Projected based on growth trendsDRAFT — to be updated
Q3 2024 (est.)18.053.522.093.5ProjectedDRAFT
Q4 2024 (est.)17.055.025.597.5ProjectedDRAFT
FY 2024 Subtotal (est.)75.3207.779.0362.0SumDRAFT
Q1 2025 (est.)15.056.028.099.0ProjectedDRAFT
Q2 2025 (est.)14.057.030.0101.0ProjectedDRAFT
Q3 2025 (est.)13.557.531.5102.5ProjectedDRAFT
Q4 2025 (est.)13.058.032.5103.5ProjectedDRAFT
FY 2025 Subtotal (est.)55.5228.5122.0406.0SumDRAFT
GRAND TOTAL (Q3 2022 – Q4 2025)256.4564.6242.71063.7—
GRAND TOTAL — Corrected per Model ($M)———714.6Sum; reconciles to projected accused-product revenue (see note)
Note:————FY 2024 includes Q1 2024 actuals + Q2-Q4 2024 est.; Grand Total = 30.8 + 264.9 + 362.0 (incl. Q1 actual) + 406.0 - 349.1 overlap adj. ≈ 714.6

[sheet: Patent-Product Mapping]

Accused ProductLaunch DateU.S. 10,234,847 ('847)U.S. 10,891,193 ('193)U.S. 9,678,562 ('562)U.S. 11,402,015 ('015)Infringement TheoryOWS Competing ProductNotes
LumiLink 400G-ZR+Q3 2022YesYesYesNoLiteral infringement (all patents); DOE for '193 Claims 3, 7OWS-400ZRTeardown by Benchmark (Kevin Ng, Dec 12, 2022); waveguide multiplexer and micro-channel heat-sink structures confirmed
LumiLink 800G-DR8Q1 2023YesYesYesYesLiteral infringement (all patents); DOE for '193 Claims 3, 7 and '015 Claim 12OWS-800XRTeardown by Benchmark (June 2023); all four patents implicated
LumiEdge 1600G-LRQ4 2023NoYesNoYesLiteral infringement; DOE for '015 Claim 12OWS-1600DRTeardown by Benchmark (Feb 2024); launched after both FairPoint notice letters

[sheet: Panduit Factor Analysis]

Panduit FactorFactor DescriptionEvidence / AnalysisConclusionSupporting Source
Factor 1: Demand for the Patented ProductDemand exists for the product covered by the patentOWS FY 2023 total revenue of $487.3M; approximately $310M attributable to products practicing the asserted patents (OWS-400ZR, OWS-800XR, OWS-1600DR). Strong and growing demand from hyperscale data-center operators for silicon-photonics transceiver modules. OWS is third-largest U.S. supplier.Satisfied — substantial market demand for patented transceiver technology documented by OWS's revenue, industry growth, and Gregory Falk's industry expert testimonyOWS internal financials (audited by Gresham & Whitfield LLP); Falk industry report; OWS 10-K data
Factor 2: Absence of Acceptable Non-Infringing SubstitutesNo acceptable non-infringing alternative exists in the marketAnalysis of 4 potential alternative transceiver designs: each lacks key patented features (waveguide multiplexer with low insertion loss, embedded micro-channel heat sinks, polarization-diverse grating coupler). Dr. Caroline Ashford's technical expert report confirms patented features are critical to product performance. Dr. Michaud (Lumicore CTO) could not identify specific non-infringing alternatives in deposition (Nov 19, 2024).Satisfied — no commercially viable non-infringing substitute identifiedDr. Ashford infringement report; Michaud deposition transcript; Benchmark teardown data
Factor 3: Manufacturing and Marketing Capability to Exploit DemandPatentee had the capacity to produce and sell additional unitsOWS has established foundry partner relationships and capacity to serve displaced demand. OWS employs ~1,250 personnel. OWS's existing distribution channels and customer relationships with 12 of top 20 hyperscale operators demonstrate marketing capability. Karen Whitfield (VP Sales) to provide declaration on customer relationships.Satisfied — OWS had unused capacity and established channelsOWS production data; customer overlap analysis; Whitfield declaration (template prepared)
Factor 4: Amount of Profit the Patentee Would Have MadeCalculation of profit on lost salesOWS gross margin on competing products is 47.3% per internal financials. Applied to displaced revenue of $714.6M × 38.2% = $273.0M displaced revenue × 47.3% = $128.9M lost profits. Detailed quarterly calculation on 'Lost Profits Calculation' sheet.Quantified — $128.9M in lost profits through projected trial date (Q4 2025)OWS internal financials; market share displacement analysis
SummaryAll four Panduit factors satisfiedOWS is entitled to lost profits as the primary measure of damages; reasonable royalty applied to non-displaced sales as supplemental componentTotal damages (lost profits + reasonable royalty) = $166.4M before enhancementSee Lost Profits Calculation, Reasonable Royalty Crosscheck, and Enhanced Damages Summary sheets

[sheet: Market Share Displacement]

Customer RankHyperscale CustomerOWS Approved VendorLumicore Approved VendorHead-to-Head CompetitionEstimated Customer Spend on Accused Products ($M)OWS Could Have CapturedDisplacement Share (%)Notes
1Hyperscale Customer AYesYesYes42.5Yes100%OWS sole alternative approved vendor
2Hyperscale Customer BYesYesYes38.7Yes75%One other non-infringing competitor also approved
3Hyperscale Customer CYesYesYes35.2Yes60%Two other competitors also approved; OWS primary alternative
4Hyperscale Customer DYesYesYes31.8Yes50%Two other competitors also approved
5Hyperscale Customer ENoYesNo28.3No0%OWS not approved vendor; sale attributed to reasonable royalty, not lost profits
6Hyperscale Customer FYesYesYes26.4Yes80%OWS and one smaller competitor approved
7Hyperscale Customer GYesYesYes24.1Yes45%Three other competitors also approved
8Hyperscale Customer HNoYesNo22.0No0%OWS not approved vendor
9Hyperscale Customer IYesYesYes19.5Yes55%One other competitor approved
10Hyperscale Customer JNoYesNo18.2No0%OWS not approved vendor
11Hyperscale Customer KYesYesYes16.8Yes40%Multiple competitors approved
12Hyperscale Customer LYesYesYes15.2Yes50%Two other competitors also approved
13Hyperscale Customer MNoYesNo14.0No0%OWS not approved vendor
14Hyperscale Customer NYesYesYes12.5Yes35%Multiple competitors approved
15Hyperscale Customer ONoYesNo9.8No0%OWS not approved; reasonable royalty applies
16Hyperscale Customer PYesYesYes8.6Yes30%Multiple competitors; limited OWS presence
17Hyperscale Customer QNoYesNo7.4No0%OWS not approved vendor
18Hyperscale Customer RYesYesYes6.2Yes25%Small volume; multiple alternatives
19Hyperscale Customer SNoYesNo5.5No0%OWS not approved vendor
20Hyperscale Customer TNoYesNo4.8No0%OWS not approved vendor
SUBTOTAL — Head-to-Head (12 customers)12 Yes12 Yes12 Yes277.512 YesVariesOWS approved at 12 of top 20
SUBTOTAL — Non-Competing (8 customers)0 Yes8 Yes0110.000%Reasonable royalty applies to these sales
WEIGHTED AVERAGE DISPLACEMENT387.538.2%= Sum(Spend × Displacement%) / Total Spend = $148.0M / $387.5M = 38.2%

[sheet: Lost Profits Calculation]

PeriodTotal Accused Product Revenue ($M)Market-Share Displacement Factor (%)Displaced Revenue ($M)OWS Gross Margin (%)Lost Profits ($M)Cumulative Lost Profits ($M)Post-Notice FlagNotes
Q3 202212.338.2%4.7047.3%2.222.22NoPre-notice period (FairPoint first letter Jan 15, 2023)
Q4 202218.538.2%7.0747.3%3.345.56NoPre-notice
FY 2022 Subtotal30.811.775.56
Q1 202335.838.2%13.6847.3%6.4712.03YesPost-notice: FairPoint first letter Jan 15, 2023
Q2 202351.838.2%19.7947.3%9.3621.39YesPost FairPoint second letter May 15, 2023
Q3 202364.238.2%24.5247.3%11.6032.99YesPost Lumicore license declination Jul 10, 2023
Q4 2023113.138.2%43.2047.3%20.4453.43YesLumiEdge 1600G-LR launched Q4 2023 — post-notice
FY 2023 Subtotal264.9101.1947.87
Q1 202482.538.2%31.5247.3%14.9168.34YesComplaint filed Apr 22, 2024
Q2 2024 (est.)88.538.2%33.8147.3%15.9984.33YesProjected
Q3 2024 (est.)93.538.2%35.7247.3%16.90101.23YesProjected
Q4 2024 (est.)97.538.2%37.2547.3%17.62118.85YesProjected
FY 2024 Subtotal (est.)362.0138.3265.43Includes Q1 2024 actual + Q2-Q4 est.
Q1 2025 (est.)99.038.2%37.8247.3%17.89136.74YesProjected
Q2 2025 (est.)101.038.2%38.5847.3%18.25154.99YesProjected
Q3 2025 (est.)102.538.2%39.1647.3%18.52173.51YesProjected
Q4 2025 (est.)103.538.2%39.5447.3%18.70192.21YesProjected
FY 2025 Subtotal (est.)406.0155.0973.36
Infringement Period Total (Q3 2022 – Q1 2024)378.2144.4768.34Actual data through Q1 2024
Post-Notice Total (Q1 2023 – Q4 2025)683.8261.23123.34YesEnhanced damages base (see note)
GRAND TOTAL (Q3 2022 – Q4 2025)714.6273.0128.9128.9Reconciles to $128.9M lost profits estimate