1018-00009
· Client 1018 · Economic Analysis
sensitivity-analysis-settlement-ranges.xlsx
DOCUMENT
M&A / Corporate
[sheet: Cover]
| Field | Value |
| Document Title | Sensitivity Analysis — Settlement Ranges and Financial Impact |
| Matter | Penterra Pharmaceuticals Corp. — IRS Transfer Pricing Examination Defense |
| Matter Number | 1018-00009 |
| Prepared By | Garrett Simmons, Lead Associate, Tax Department |
| Reviewed By | Leonard Cross, Responsible Partner, Tax Department |
| Firm | Calderwood & Harkness LLP |
| Date Prepared | December 8, 2023 |
| Purpose | Model potential settlement outcomes at Appeals for hazards-of-litigation assessment and client settlement authority discussions |
| Client | Penterra Pharmaceuticals Corp. (EIN: 22-3741856) |
| Taxpayer Address | 2200 Independence Boulevard, Princeton Junction, NJ 08550 |
| Tax Years at Issue | 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 |
| IRS Exam Team ID | LB&I-NE-TP-2022-00641 |
| NOPA Date | October 12, 2023 |
| 30-Day Letter Date | November 8, 2023 |
| Protest Filing Date | December 22, 2023 |
| Status | PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL — ATTORNEY WORK PRODUCT |
[sheet: Proposed Adjustments Summary]
| Issue / Category | TY 2017 ($) | TY 2018 ($) | TY 2019 ($) | TY 2020 ($) | Total All Years ($) | Notes |
| CSA Cost-Sharing Adjustment | 48,730,000 | 57,610,000 | 62,850,000 | 65,820,000 | 235,010,000 | IRS proposes increasing PBI cost-share % by 8–12 pp per year |
| PPC Position: PBI Cost-Share % | 38.2% | 39.6% | 41.1% | 42.7% | — | Based on reasonably anticipated benefit projections |
| IRS Proposed PBI Cost-Share % | 48.2% | 50.6% | 52.3% | 53.7% | — | IRS asserts U.S.-source value understated |
| Increase in Percentage Points | +10.0 pp | +11.0 pp | +11.2 pp | +11.0 pp | — | |
| Total R&D Cost Pool | 487,300,000 | 523,800,000 | 561,200,000 | 598,400,000 | 2,170,700,000 | Qualified R&D costs under CSA |
| Additional CSA Payment to PPC | 48,730,000 | 57,618,000 | 62,854,400 | 65,824,000 | 235,026,400 | pp increase × R&D cost pool (rounded to NOPA figures) |
| Royalty Rate Adjustment | 52,949,000 | 49,549,500 | 44,967,000 | 40,566,500 | 188,032,000 | IRS proposes increasing legacy IP royalty from 4.5% to 11.0% |
| PPC Position: Royalty Rate | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | CUT median 4.4%; IQR 3.1%–6.8% (14 comparables) |
| IRS Proposed Royalty Rate | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | — | Based on IRS-selected CUTs |
| Rate Differential | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | — | |
| Legacy Net Sales (Non-Americas) | 814,600,000 | 762,300,000 | 691,800,000 | 624,100,000 | 2,892,800,000 | Declining product lifecycle |
| Additional Royalty to PPC | 52,949,000 | 49,549,500 | 44,967,000 | 40,566,500 | 188,032,000 | Rate diff × legacy net sales |
| Gross Proposed Adjustments | 101,679,000 | 107,159,500 | 107,817,000 | 106,386,500 | 423,042,000 | CSA + Royalty subtotals |
| Less: Correlative Offset | -10,662,500 | -10,662,500 | -10,662,500 | -10,662,500 | -42,650,000 | Allowed by exam to avoid double-counting between CSA and royalty |
| Net Proposed Adjustment | 91,017,500 | 96,497,500 | 97,157,500 | 95,727,500 | 380,400,000 | Gross less correlative offset (rounded per NOPA) |
| Applicable Federal Tax Rate | 35% / 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% | — | TY 2017: blended 35%/21% due to TCJA (effective 1/1/2018); TY 2018–2020: 21% |
| Proposed Penalty (IRC § 6662(e)) | — | — | — | — | 15,977,000 | $380.4M × 21% × 20% = ~$15.98M (substantial valuation misstatement) |
[sheet: Settlement Scenarios]
| Metric | Full Adjustment (100%) | Scenario A: 5% | Scenario B: 10% | Scenario C: 12.5% | Scenario D: 15% | Scenario E: 20% | Scenario F: 25% |
| Settlement Percentage | 100% | 5% | 10% | 12.5% | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Total Adjustment ($) | 380,400,000 | 19,020,000 | 38,040,000 | 47,550,000 | 57,060,000 | 76,080,000 | 95,100,000 |
Estimated Year-by-Year Allocation:
| TY 2017 Adjustment | 91,017,500 | 4,550,875 | 9,101,750 | 11,377,188 | 13,652,625 | 18,203,500 | 22,754,375 |
| TY 2018 Adjustment | 96,497,500 | 4,824,875 | 9,649,750 | 12,062,188 | 14,474,625 | 19,299,500 | 24,124,375 |
| TY 2019 Adjustment | 97,157,500 | 4,857,875 | 9,715,750 | 12,144,688 | 14,573,625 | 19,431,500 | 24,289,375 |
| TY 2020 Adjustment | 95,727,500 | 4,786,375 | 9,572,750 | 11,965,938 | 14,359,125 | 19,145,500 | 23,931,875 |
Federal Tax Liability:
| TY 2017 Tax (blended ~21%) | 19,113,675 | 955,684 | 1,911,367 | 2,389,209 | 2,867,051 | 3,822,735 | 4,778,419 |
| TY 2018 Tax (21%) | 20,264,475 | 1,013,224 | 2,026,448 | 2,533,059 | 3,039,671 | 4,052,895 | 5,066,119 |
| TY 2019 Tax (21%) | 20,403,075 | 1,020,154 | 2,040,308 | 2,550,384 | 3,060,461 | 4,080,615 | 5,100,769 |
| TY 2020 Tax (21%) | 20,102,775 | 1,005,139 | 2,010,278 | 2,512,847 | 3,015,416 | 4,020,555 | 5,025,694 |
| Total Tax Due | 79,884,000 | 3,994,200 | 7,988,400 | 9,985,500 | 11,982,600 | 15,976,800 | 19,971,000 |
Estimated Underpayment Interest:
| TY 2017 Interest (est. ~6 yrs) | 7,160,000 | 358,000 | 716,000 | 895,000 | 1,074,000 | 1,432,000 | 1,790,000 |
| TY 2018 Interest (est. ~5 yrs) | 6,600,000 | 330,000 | 660,000 | 825,000 | 990,000 | 1,320,000 | 1,650,000 |
| TY 2019 Interest (est. ~4 yrs) | 5,200,000 | 260,000 | 520,000 | 650,000 | 780,000 | 1,040,000 | 1,300,000 |
| TY 2020 Interest (est. ~3 yrs) | 3,805,000 | 190,000 | 381,000 | 470,000 | 571,000 | 761,000 | 951,000 |
| Total Estimated Interest | 22,765,000 | 1,138,000 | 2,277,000 | 2,840,000 | 3,415,000 | 4,553,000 | 5,691,000 |
Penalty Analysis:
| IRC § 6662(e) Penalty (20% of tax) | 15,976,800 | 798,840 | 1,597,680 | 1,997,100 | 2,396,520 | 3,195,360 | 3,994,200 |
| Penalty if Abated (reasonable cause) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Assumed Penalty Outcome | 15,976,800 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Cash Cost to PPC:
| Tax + Interest (penalty abated) | 102,649,000 | 5,132,200 | 10,265,400 | 12,825,500 | 15,397,600 | 20,529,800 | 25,662,000 |
| Tax + Interest + Penalty (if assessed) | 118,625,800 | 5,931,040 | 11,863,080 | 14,822,600 | 17,794,120 | 23,725,160 | 29,656,200 |
Professional Fees (estimated):
| Calderwood & Harkness LLP Legal Fees | 5,837,420 | 5,837,420 | 5,837,420 | 5,837,420 | 5,837,420 | 5,837,420 | 5,837,420 |
| Whitmore Valuation Group Expert Fees | 2,146,800 | 2,146,800 | 2,146,800 | 2,146,800 | 2,146,800 | 2,146,800 | 2,146,800 |
| Thornbury & Keogh Irish Coordination Fees | 341,200 | 341,200 | 341,200 | 341,200 | 341,200 | 341,200 | 341,200 |
| Total Professional Fees | 8,325,420 | 8,325,420 | 8,325,420 | 8,325,420 | 8,325,420 | 8,325,420 | 8,325,420 |
| Total All-In Cost to PPC (penalty abated) | 110,974,420 | 13,457,620 | 18,590,820 | 21,150,920 | 23,723,020 | 28,855,220 | 33,987,420 |
| Total All-In Cost to PPC (penalty assessed) | 126,951,220 | 14,256,460 | 20,188,500 | 23,148,020 | 26,119,540 | 32,050,580 | 37,981,620 |
Savings vs. Full IRS Position:
| Savings on Tax + Interest (penalty abated) | 0 | 97,516,800 | 92,383,600 | 89,823,500 | 87,251,400 | 82,119,200 | 76,987,000 |
| Savings as % of Full IRS Position | 0.0% | 95.0% | 90.0% | 87.5% | 85.0% | 80.0% | 75.0% |
| Savings on Total All-In Cost (penalty abated) | 0 | 97,516,800 | 92,383,600 | 89,823,500 | 87,251,400 | 82,119,200 | 76,987,000 |
[sheet: Year-by-Year Detail]
| Tax Year | Net Proposed Adj — IRS ($) | PBI Cost-Share % (PPC Position) | PBI Cost-Share % (IRS Position) | R&D Cost Pool ($) | CSA Adj Component ($) | Legacy Net Sales ($) | Royalty Rate (PPC) | Royalty Rate (IRS) | Royalty Adj Component ($) | Correlative Offset ($) | Net Proposed Adj ($) | Settlement at 5% ($) | Settlement at 10% ($) | Settlement at 12.5% ($) | Settlement at 15% ($) | Settlement at 20% ($) | Settlement at 25% ($) | Applicable Tax Rate | Notes |
| 2017 | 91,017,500 | 38.2% | 48.2% | 487,300,000 | 48,730,000 | 814,600,000 | 4.5% | 11.0% | 52,949,000 | -10,662,500 | 91,017,500 | 4,550,875 | 9,101,750 | 11,377,188 | 13,652,625 | 18,203,500 | 22,754,375 | 35%/21% blended (TCJA effective 1/1/2018) | Pre-TCJA rate applies to portion of TY 2017 |
| 2018 | 96,497,500 | 39.6% | 50.6% | 523,800,000 | 57,610,000 | 762,300,000 | 4.5% | 11.0% | 49,549,500 | -10,662,500 | 96,497,500 | 4,824,875 | 9,649,750 | 12,062,188 | 14,474,625 | 19,299,500 | 24,124,375 | 21% | Post-TCJA |
| 2019 | 97,157,500 | 41.1% | 52.3% | 561,200,000 | 62,854,400 | 691,800,000 | 4.5% | 11.0% | 44,967,000 | -10,662,500 | 97,157,500 | 4,857,875 | 9,715,750 | 12,144,688 | 14,573,625 | 19,431,500 | 24,289,375 | 21% | Post-TCJA |
| 2020 | 95,727,500 | 42.7% | 53.7% | 598,400,000 | 65,824,000 | 624,100,000 | 4.5% | 11.0% | 40,566,500 | -10,662,500 | 95,727,500 | 4,786,375 | 9,572,750 | 11,965,938 | 14,359,125 | 19,145,500 | 23,931,875 | 21% | Post-TCJA |
| TOTAL | 380,400,000 | — | — | 2,170,700,000 | 235,018,400 | 2,892,800,000 | — | — | 188,032,000 | -42,650,000 | 380,400,000 | 19,020,000 | 38,040,000 | 47,550,000 | 57,060,000 | 76,080,000 | 95,100,000 | — |
[sheet: Interest Computation]
| Tax Year | Original Due Date | Estimated Payment Date | Approximate Interest Period | Applicable Federal Rate (avg. quarterly rate) | Tax at 5% Settlement ($) | Interest at 5% ($) | Tax at 10% Settlement ($) | Interest at 10% ($) | Tax at 12.5% Settlement ($) | Interest at 12.5% ($) | Tax at 15% Settlement ($) | Interest at 15% ($) | Tax at 20% Settlement ($) | Interest at 20% ($) | Tax at 25% Settlement ($) | Interest at 25% ($) |
| 2017 | April 15, 2018 | April 30, 2024 | ~6 years | ~5.0% avg. compounded | 955,684 | 358,000 | 1,911,367 | 716,000 | 2,389,209 | 895,000 | 2,867,051 | 1,074,000 | 3,822,735 | 1,432,000 | 4,778,419 | 1,790,000 |
| 2018 | April 15, 2019 | April 30, 2024 | ~5 years | ~5.0% avg. compounded | 1,013,224 | 330,000 | 2,026,448 | 660,000 | 2,533,059 | 825,000 | 3,039,671 | 990,000 | 4,052,895 | 1,320,000 | 5,066,119 | 1,650,000 |
| 2019 | April 15, 2020 | April 30, 2024 | ~4 years | ~5.2% avg. compounded | 1,020,154 | 260,000 | 2,040,308 | 520,000 | 2,550,384 | 650,000 | 3,060,461 | 780,000 | 4,080,615 | 1,040,000 | 5,100,769 | 1,300,000 |
| 2020 | April 15, 2021 | April 30, 2024 | ~3 years | ~5.5% avg. compounded | 1,005,139 | 190,000 | 2,010,278 | 381,000 | 2,512,847 | 470,000 | 3,015,416 | 571,000 | 4,020,555 | 761,000 | 5,025,694 | 951,000 |
| TOTAL | — | — | — | — | 3,994,200 | 1,138,000 | 7,988,400 | 2,277,000 | 9,985,500 | 2,840,000 | 11,982,600 | 3,415,000 | 15,976,800 | 4,553,000 | 19,971,000 | 5,691,000 |
[sheet: Penalty Analysis]
| Metric | Full Adjustment | 5% Settlement | 10% Settlement | 12.5% Settlement | 15% Settlement | 20% Settlement | 25% Settlement |
| Net Adjustment ($) | 380,400,000 | 19,020,000 | 38,040,000 | 47,550,000 | 57,060,000 | 76,080,000 | 95,100,000 |
| Tax on Adjustment (21%) | 79,884,000 | 3,994,200 | 7,988,400 | 9,985,500 | 11,982,600 | 15,976,800 | 19,971,000 |
| IRC § 6662(e) Substantial Valuation Misstatement Penalty (20%) | 15,976,800 | 798,840 | 1,597,680 | 1,997,100 | 2,396,520 | 3,195,360 | 3,994,200 |
| IRC § 6662(h) Gross Valuation Misstatement Penalty (40%) — Reserved, Not Asserted | 31,953,600 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Reasonable Cause Defense Factors:
| Contemporaneous TP documentation (Crestfield & Associates) | Yes — all 4 years | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Documentation meets IRC § 6662(e)(3)(B) standards | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Independent economic analysis (Whitmore Valuation Group) | Yes — CUT, CPM/TNMM, DCF | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PPC's 4.5% royalty rate within CUT IQR (3.1%–6.8%) | Yes — median 4.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PPC's PCT payment ($312M) within DCF range ($278M–$361M) | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PPC WACC of 9.8% supported vs. IRS 7.2% | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Good-faith reliance on professional advisors | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Assessment: Penalty Abatement Likelihood | High | High | High | High | High | High | High |
| Assumed Penalty in Settlement | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Savings vs. Full Assessment | 15,976,800 | 798,840 | 1,597,680 | 1,997,100 | 2,396,520 | 3,195,360 | 3,994,200 |
| Net Cost Reduction from Penalty Abatement (all scenarios) | — | Full penalty abated | Full penalty abated | Full penalty abated | Full penalty abated | Full penalty abated | Full penalty abated |